This coming weekend’s initial distribution in the US of perhaps hundreds of thousands of Apple iPads is likely to mark the birth of a significant category in computing, one lodged in size and capability between a conventional PC and a smartphone.
But how big a space exists between those established categories is something that will only be worked out over months or even years, say industry analysts.
That uncertainty is reflected in the unusually wide range of Wall Street predictions for how many of the 9.7-inch screen tablets Apple will sell in the product’s first year: anywhere from 1m to 10m units, which start at about $500. The debut weekend’s sales – whether official or estimated – therefore will be subjected to great scrutiny.
Yet the figure will be far from the most important thing about the iPad’s early days.
First of all, manufacturing constraints at some of Apple’s suppliers prompted the company to limit preorders to two per customer, even for businesses.
Next, many people interested in buying an iPad are waiting for the version that comes with a 3G cellular service, instead of the WiFi-only models that will be available on Saturday, or for such delayed accessories as a physical keyboard. Others want to read the reviews.
But probably the biggest factor that will artificially depress early sales is uncertainty over what to do with the iPad.
A ComScore survey found that about half of respondents said they would use an iPad for web surfing and e-mail, with the intent to read books and other print media, listen to music, watch video and play games all coming in at 30-38 per cent.
One set of questions to be answered is what new programs and forms of content will be available on the iPad, on what terms, and with what popularity. That information should help to show consumers why they should spend their money.
Another issue that will begin to be resolved this weekend is how happy the first wave of buyers are and how loudly they will evangelise the product.
Even that, though, will not dictate the iPad’s fate. The iPhone’s initial sales were more than respectable, but the sales rate rose after several quarters, when connection speeds improved.
The turnround was more remarkable with the WiFi-only iPod Touch, initially seen as an iPod for video.
Only gradually did consumers come to see it as a mobile computer with touch sensitivity and other features that made it close to ideal for playing games. Available programs rapidly followed the new demand.
The iPod Touch is a closer parallel to the iPad, and so a similarly curved takeoff is likely, says Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer analyst. “The iPhone was able to benefit from the fact that it was entering an established category. Here, Apple is breaking ground on a new type of use-case. It will take some time for consumers to understand what the benefits of the device are.”
By last Saturday, Apple had run out of the inventory, noting on its website that new orders would not be shipped before April 12.
source: ft.com
